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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

An A/B test on a landing page shows the variant winning by 8% on conversion after four days, and the client wants to roll it to 100% now. The result hasn't hit statistical significance. How confident are you, and what do you tell them?

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I'm not confident yet, and I'd say exactly that in plain terms: an 8% lift that hasn't reached significance means there's a real chance the true effect is zero, or even negative, and we're seeing noise.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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