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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

A client's steering committee asks you to commit to a go-live date, but half your critical path depends on their team delivering test data and business sign-offs on time — and they've slipped twice already. What date do you give, and how do you frame your certainty?

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I won't give a single confident date that silently absorbs their risk, because when their test data slips a third time I'll own a miss I didn't cause.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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