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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

A creative concept the whole team loves tests poorly in a small pre-launch focus group, but you suspect the group was too small and skewed. The client is waiting on your go/no-go to book media. What do you decide?

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A twelve-person focus group is a flashlight, not a verdict — it's great at surfacing why something confuses people and terrible at predicting scaled performance, so I won't let it veto a concept on its own.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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