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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

A hot seed round closes in 48 hours and the founder offers you an allocation now if you commit; you've done two reference calls and a product demo but no customer diligence. Do you write the check, and on what basis?

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At seed, I never pretend I have late-stage certainty, so the question isn't whether I'm sure, it's whether the entry price pays me for what I don't yet know.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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