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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

A key overseas supplier signals their next shipment may slip two to three weeks — they won't confirm — right as you're building the allocation for a promoted item. Do you plan the promotion around the original date, the worst case, or something else?

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I plan around the worst case for the commitment and the best case for the upside — meaning I do not promote inventory I can't guarantee is on the shelf.

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