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Judgment & ambiguity · Prioritizing without clear signal

A natural disaster hits a region you serve. Donations and volunteer offers flood in faster than you can absorb them, needs on the ground are still unclear, and every hour someone asks you what to do first. How do you prioritize in the fog?

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In the fog, my first priority isn't distribution — it's reducing the fog, because acting fast on bad assumptions burns donations and goodwill we can't get back.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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