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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

A risk model that’s driven good decisions all year is now giving outputs that feel off against what you’re seeing in the market — but you can’t yet prove it’s wrong. How do you decide how much weight to put on the model versus your read, and how do you say that out loud?

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I don’t override a model on a feeling, and I don’t defer to it blindly when my instrument reading disagrees — I try to locate the disagreement.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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