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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

A severe-weather forecast is borderline for tomorrow — icy roads possible but not certain — and you have to decide tonight whether to close, delay, or run school on time. Families need the call by 9 p.m. What do you decide, and how?

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I make the call tonight with the information I have, because families need to plan and a late reversal is worse than a decisive early one.

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