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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

A stability study at the 12-month pull shows a degradation product creeping up but still inside spec, with the trend line pointing at the limit around month 20. You need to set the shelf life now for the label. What do you commit to?

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I set the shelf life to what the data at the confidence limit supports today, not to where the point estimate crosses spec — so I'd anchor to roughly month 18, not 20, and say why.

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