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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

An A/B test on a new checkout flow shows a 3% lift in conversion after four days, but the confidence interval still crosses zero and one variant is faster to build. Do you ship, keep running, or cut it?

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I don't ship on a lift whose interval crosses zero — four days of data with the CI still spanning zero means the 3% could be noise, and calling it a win now is exactly how teams ship regressions they later can't explain.

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