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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

An A/B test on a new store layout shows higher conversion but early signs of lower day-seven retention in the variant, and the retention read won't stabilize for another week. Do you ship the layout now, kill it, or extend the test?

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Conversion up and retention down is the trade I most distrust, because a store change that squeezes more spend out of players who then churn faster is often just borrowing revenue from next month.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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