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Judgment & ambiguity · When to escalate

As a reserving analyst you notice that paid losses on a casualty line are running ahead of the pattern your reserve assumes, but it's only two quarters of data and could be random. Reserves feed the numbers leadership reports externally. When does this stop being a footnote in your review and become an escalation?

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Two quarters isn't a trend, so I don't cry wolf — but a directional signal on a long-tail line is exactly where waiting is expensive, because reserve inadequacy compounds.…

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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