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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

Catalyst activity in a continuous reactor has been declining faster than the model predicted, and you can't tell whether it's normal aging, a poison in the feed, or a fouling issue. Replacing the charge means a costly shutdown; pushing on risks a deeper deactivation. What do you decide with the data you have?

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The three causes point to different actions, so my first move is the cheap diagnostic that discriminates them rather than committing to a shutdown blind.

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