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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

First-pass yield on a line dropped from 96 to 89 percent over two weeks with no single obvious cause, and every function has a different theory. How sure are you about the root cause, and what would you commit to before you're certain?

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I'd be explicit that right now my confidence in any single root cause is low — a seven-point yield drop with competing theories usually means either one hidden change or several sm

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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