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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Marketing wants to make a performance claim for a device in a new use setting, but the clinical evaluation has a gap — the existing evidence is adjacent, not directly on that setting. How sure are you the claim is supported, and how do you decide what can be said?

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My confidence has to match the evidence, not the ambition, and adjacent data is exactly where overclaiming happens — so I separate what we've demonstrated from what we've merely inferred.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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