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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Overnight, traffic to the client's site from your campaign spiked far above forecast, and conversions barely moved. It could be a genuine breakout or it could be bot and click fraud. How sure do you let yourself be before you report it?

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A traffic spike with flat conversions is the classic shape of invalid traffic, so my prior leans toward fraud until proven otherwise — good news that's too clean gets more scrutiny, not less.…

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