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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Six weeks into a new reading intervention, the interim benchmark data looks flat while the teachers say kids are more engaged. The board wants to know if it's working. How confident are you, and what do you tell them?

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I tell them the truth, which is that six weeks is too early to call, and I say exactly how sure I am: low confidence on the outcome, higher confidence that we're not yet in a position to judge.…

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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