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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Stability data for a marketed product shows an impurity trending upward — at the 24-month point it's still within spec, but linear extrapolation would breach before the labeled 36-month expiry. How sure are you that the shelf life holds, and how do you say so?

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I'd say my confidence that the current label holds is moderate and dropping, and I'd put a number on it rather than a vibe.…

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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