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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

The client needs a market-size number for a go/no-go decision Friday, but your bottom-up build rests on two data points from expert calls and a trade-report figure you can't fully reconcile. What number do you put on the page, and how do you frame it?

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I'd put down a range, not a single spurious number, and anchor it to the decision the client is actually making.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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