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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Your e-commerce team ran an A/B test on a new checkout flow: the variant shows a 6% lift in conversion, but the test hit significance on only three of the last seven days and mobile and desktop point in opposite directions. Leadership asks whether you'd roll it out to 100%. How confident are you, and what do you say?

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I'm not confident enough to ship it to 100% today, and I'd say exactly that — maybe 50% confidence the aggregate lift is real, and near-zero that it's real on both platforms.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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