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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Your hydraulic model says a proposed culvert passes the design storm with modest freeboard, but the model relies on rainfall data and a runoff coefficient you know carry real uncertainty. How do you present your confidence in that sizing to the reviewing agency?

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I present it as a sized design with named uncertainties, not as a passing grade, because a culvert that clears the design storm with 'modest' freeboard is exactly where input error can flip the result.…

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