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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Your new ranking model beats the incumbent on every offline metric, but you know offline gains often shrink or reverse online. A stakeholder asks how confident you are it'll win in production. What number do you give, and how do you defend it?

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Your new ranking model beats the incumbent on every offline metric, but you know offline gains often shrink or reverse online. A stakeholder asks how confident you are it'll win in production. What number do you give, and how do you defend it?

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