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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

Your spring enrollment projection for next year sits right between two staffing scenarios — one more teacher or one fewer at a grade level — and the number won't firm up until August. You have to commit to the budget now. What do you do?

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I commit now, and I'd rather err toward staffing up, because the two errors are not symmetric.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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