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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

Your weighting scheme could be built two defensible ways, and the choice materially shifts the headline result the client will act on. There’s no ground truth to check against. How do you decide which model to run with?

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When two methods are both defensible and there’s no ground truth, the worst move is to quietly pick the one that gives the tidier headline — that’s researcher-degrees-of-freedom masquerading as analysis.…

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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