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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

You're a safety analyst reviewing incoming reports and you notice three loosely similar tail-strike events in eight weeks across different crews and airframes — possibly a random cluster, possibly an emerging trend in a procedure or training gap. With no clear common cause yet, what do you do?

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Three events is too few for statistical certainty and too many to ignore in a safety system — so I act on the possibility while I investigate the cause.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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