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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

You're presenting a media plan and the client asks, 'What return should we expect on this spend?' The honest answer is a wide range with real uncertainty. How do you answer without either overpromising or sounding like you don't know?

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I answer with a range and the reasoning behind it, never a single hero number, because a precise forecast I can't stand behind is the fastest way to lose trust at the wrap report.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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