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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

You're presenting the year's catastrophe budget to leadership. Your model gives a mean annual loss, but the tail is fat and the model itself has known blind spots. Leadership wants a single number to plan around. How do you give it to them without misrepresenting your certainty?

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I'd give them a number, because they need something to plan against — but I'd anchor it as a distribution, not a fact.

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