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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

You're pricing a change-order for unforeseen rock excavation and the owner wants a firm number today, but you've only hit rock in one location and don't know how far it extends. How do you put a price on it?

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I won't give a firm lump sum for a quantity I can't see, because a wrong number today either exposes us to a loss or overcharges the owner and blows up trust when the real quantity lands.

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