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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

You're pricing a renewal for a mid-size account. The broker has given you updated exposure data that materially lowers the premium, but it arrived late, is partly self-reported, and you can't fully verify it before the renewal date. Do you honor the lower indication?

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I'd treat self-reported exposure data as a starting point I price around, not a fact I accept because the clock is short.

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