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Judgment & ambiguity · Prioritizing without clear signal

A named storm is forecast to make landfall in 60 hours, but the track cone still covers three different books of business with very different exposures. Your cat-response team can only pre-stage resources for one. Nothing is clearly the priority yet. How do you sequence?

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I wouldn't wait for the cone to collapse, because staging has lead time and the last 24 hours are too late to move people.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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