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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

The founder's deck claims a $40B market; your own bottom-up build gets you to a fraction of that with wide error bars. How do you calibrate your view of the opportunity, and how do you present that uncertainty to the partnership?

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I trust my bottom-up build over the deck's top-down number, because a $40B slide is usually a category total, not the wedge this company can actually win.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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