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Judgment & ambiguity · Decisions under uncertainty

Your last-touch attribution model says paid social drove the quarter, but the brand-lift study and the client's own sales geography tell a different story. The client asks where to put next quarter's budget. What do you recommend, and on what basis?

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I trust none of the three signals fully, and I say so — last-touch systematically over-credits the channels closest to conversion, so paid social 'winning' is partly an artifact of the model, not proof.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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