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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

Your lead antibody candidate shows a strong efficacy signal in one mouse study but a weaker, non-significant trend in the repeat. Leadership asks you: how confident are you that this molecule is real, and should we commit the next quarter's budget to it?

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I'd put my confidence that there's a real biological effect at roughly moderate — call it 55 to 65% — and I'd say exactly that rather than round it up to keep the program alive.…

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