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Judgment & ambiguity · When to act

You're halfway through a paid-search flight, spend is pacing ahead of plan, and cost-per-acquisition has been creeping up for four straight days. Do you cut budget now, hold, or let it ride, and what tells you which?

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Four rising days is a signal worth acting on, but not blindly — I first decide whether it's a trend or noise, because cutting a temporarily expensive channel that's about to normalize is its own mistake.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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