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Judgment & ambiguity · Calibrating confidence

You've onboarded a new subcontractor to cover overflow jobs. Early signals are mixed — a couple of glowing reviews, one complaint, and completion times that look fine. How confident are you that they're safe to send to more customers, and what would change that?

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On this sample I'm not confident either way, and I'd say so plainly — two good reviews, one complaint and a handful of on-time jobs is far too little to conclude anything, in either direction.

The full answer: structure, worked example, likely follow-up.

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